Shares of Facebook (FB) fell as low as $33 today, more than 13% below the offering price on Friday. Ironically the same shareholders who were assumed to be buyers of the stock at any price are now ditching FB at a steep discount.
The details of what caused the epic debacle of Facebook's IPO will be ironed out in time. The more pertinent questions for investors are what lies ahead for the company, and what, if anything, should you do with Facebook shares now?
"I would buy it, and I would buy some more on the dip," says Todd Schoenberger of the BlackBay Group. "Social networking is nothing without content," notes the last remaining Facebok bull, in the attached video. "Mark Zuckerberg has been very open about this; he wants every human being to use Facebook."
With more eyeballs will come more revenue, Schoenberger claims, citing Facebook's status as "the nucleus of social networking."
Facebook's problem as a company is its inability thus far to "monetize" the nearly 15% of the world already using the site. FB revenues in Q1 were lower than they were in Q4 of 2011. Companies trading at about 23x sales don't have the liberty of blaming seasonality; they need every quarter to be bigger than the last to justify such a lofty valuation.
Even worse, Facebook fastest growing segment is the tablet cellphone segment. As FB admitted in it's recent S1, it's getting no "meaningful revenue" at all from these users.
For a stock to remain expensive on a multiple basis, the Street needs to have confidence in management. Count Schoenberger as one of the many on Wall Street who thinks Mark Zuckerberg's casual approach to dress raises red flags.
The real money for social sites is in tapping businesses and older users. Kids are notoriously fickle, but adults tend to stick with what they know. "Facebook kind of has this reputation of just being this pre-teen site," Schoenberger grouses. "It doesn't help that the CEO of the company is walking around wearing a hoodie."
Schoenberger says Facebook will eventually find its footing and take on a more "adult" feel. In the meantime, he's a buyer all the way down to 20% below the $38 offering price. If FB drops below $30 Schoenberger will admit defeat and let the company grow up without him.
Judging by Facebook's price action over its brief history it could be a matter of weeks, if not days, before Facebook loses one of its few remaining passionate fans.
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