Mitt Romney is in a solid position heading into Super Tuesday, poised to win at least four states by wide margins.
In Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho and Virginia, Romney is expected to gather large swaths of the vote, setting up high expectations in the 10 Super Tuesday contests, leaving Ohio as the battleground that could make or break his evening.
But how will Romney fare in the logistical battle for delegates, the "real" measure of which candidate has edged closer to the nomination?
Delegate prediction isn't so much a science, or an art. It's more like Pin the Tail on the Donkey. In theory, however, Romney should be able to win between 215 and 250 delegates on Tuesday -- about half of the 437 at stake, and more than any other single candidate. If Romney falls short of 200, it won't look good. If he climbs toward 300, his aura of inevitability will continue to glow.
Fuzzy Math
That's more of a guess than a hard prediction.
The Republican Party's tangled delegate system allows each state to devise its own rules, and all those rules differ from one another in subtle or radical ways. To accurately predict who will win which delegates where, one has to know how each congressional district will vote, whether certain candidates will meet 15 percent or 20 percent thresholds in districts and states, and whether some states will become winner-take-all if enough votes go to the leader. Not all of the 437 Super Tuesday delegates will be "awarded," as most states will send three party officials to the national convention as unbound delegates. The nuances go on.
A candidate will need 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. Romney currently leads with 184 delegates, according to the latest ABC News delegate estimate. Rick Santorum (91), Newt Gingrich (30) and Ron Paul (23) follow.
Those numbers include ABC's projections of how unbound and not-yet-selected caucus-state delegates will vote. Strictly in terms of delegates who have already been awarded, Romney (118) still leads, with Gingrich (29), Santorum (17) and Paul (8) following.
If no candidate reaches 1,144 delegates by August, Republicans will decide their nominee on the floor of their national convention in Tampa, Fla. With Romney in a commanding lead, a big question surrounding delegates is: Can Romney's competitors perform well enough, and stay in the race long enough, to keep him from reaching 1,144 and force a convention fight?
Realistically, it will be impossible for any candidate to reach 1,144 delegates before May.
Factors to Consider
Romney's Super Tuesday delegate total will be swayed by how well he performs in the states Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are expected to win.
Can Romney meet the 20 percent threshold to qualify for delegates in Tennessee and its individual congressional districts? Can he perform well enough in Oklahoma's congressional districts to snag one of three delegates in a handful of them? Some very small factors will determine whether Romney meets expectations or falls short.
ABC's Amy Bingham contributed to this report.
Delegates: 76
Advantage: Gingrich
Newt Gingrich is expected to perform well in his home state, or at least better than he has in the past few contests. A Feb. 28-March 1 Mason-Dixon poll showed Gingrich leading in Georgia by 14 percentage points.
2008 Results: Mike Huckabee (34 percent), John McCain (32 percent), Mitt Romney (30 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
-42 congressional district delegates: three awarded proportionally within each district to candidates who surpass a 20 percent threshold in a given district, or winner-take-all if a candidate surpasses 50 percent in a given district.
-34 at-large delegates awarded proportionally to candidates who surpass a 20 percent threshold statewide.
-Three automatic unbound Republican National Committee delegates.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 20
Delegates: 66
Advantage: Too Close to Call
The $64,000 question for Super Tuesday, Ohio isn't so easily marked in any candidate's column, either by location or demographics, and it's being talked about as the biggest battleground of March 6. After polls showed Santorum leading in the past few weeks, Romney now leads by 3 percentage points in the latest Quinnipiac survey. Furthermore, Santorum isn't eligible for roughly a quarter of Ohio's delegates, having failed to file slates of delegates in some congressional districts.
2008 Results: McCain (60 percent), Huckabee (31 percent), Paul (5 percent), Romney (3 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
- 48 congressional district delegates: three awarded winner-take-all within each district.
-15 at-large delegates awarded proportionally to candidates who surpass a 15 percent threshold statewide, or winner-take-all if any candidate surpasses 50 percent statewide.
-Three automatic unbound RNC delegates. In most states, the state party chairman and Republican National committee members automatically vote at the national convention as unbound delegates.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 33
Delegates: 58
Advantage: Santorum
Santorum leads big here, by 21 points to be exact, according to a recent poll from Middle Tennessee State University.
2008 results: Huckabee (34 percent), McCain (32 percent), Romney (24 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
-27 congressional district delegates: three awarded proportionally within each district to candidates who surpass a 20 percent threshold, or winner-take-all if any candidate surpasses 66 percent within a given district.
-28 at-large delegates awarded proportionally to candidates who surpass a 20 percent threshold, or winner-take-all if any candidate surpasses 66 percent statewide.
-Three automatic unbound RNC delegates.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 9
Delegates: 49
Advantage: Romney
Romney and Ron Paul are the only two active presidential candidates on the ballot in Virginia, as Gingrich and Santorum failed to submit 10,000 signatures of registered Virginia voters by Dec. 22, including 400 from each of the state's 11 congressional districts.
2008 results: McCain (50 percent), Huckabee (41 percent), Paul (4 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
-33 congressional-district delegates: three delegates awarded winner-take-all to the winner of a given district.
-13 at-large delegates awarded proportionally to candidates who win more than 15 percent statewide or winner-take-all if any candidate surpasses 50 percent.
-Three automatic unbound RNC delegates.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 43
Delegates: 43
Advantage: Santorum
Reflecting on a slew of polls that ABC News does not consider reportable, the Oklahoman nonetheless has reported a big advantage for Santorum in the state. Aside from the lack of verifiable data, Oklahoma is expected to go Santorum's way because of its socially conservative leanings.
2008 results: McCain (37 percent), Huckabee (33 percent), Romney (25 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
-15 congressional district delegates awarded proportionally within each district to candidates who surpass a 15 percent threshold, or winner-take-all if any candidate surpasses 50 percent within a given district.
-25 at-large delegates awarded proportionally to candidates who surpass a 15 percent threshold, or winner-take-all if any candidate surpasses 50 percent statewide.
-Three automatic unbound RNC delegates.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 10
Delegates: 41
Advantage: Romney
With party leaders lined up behind him, Mitt Romney is expected to handily win the state he governed.
2008 results: Romney (51 percent), McCain (41 percent), Huckabee (4 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
-38 bound delegates awarded proportionally according to statewide results to candidates who surpass a 15 percent threshold.
-Three automatic unbound RNC delegates, all of whom have said they back Romney.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 12
Delegates: 32
Advantage: Romney
Both Romney and Santorum campaigned in Idaho in February, but a Mormon advantage should work in Romney's favor. Romney won 93 percent of the Mormon vote in Arizona, and 23 percent of Idaho residents are Mormons, according to survey data from the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life--21 percent higher than the nation as a whole.
2008 results: McCain (70 percent), Paul (24 percent), Uncommitted (6 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
- All 32 delegates are awarded by county.
- Each county selects only one winner, and counties carry weights based on past GOP vote performance.
- By winning counties, candidates add to their cumulative percent weight, which is multiplied by 32.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 32
Delegates: 28
Advantage: Romney
Polling is scarce, but Romney won in 2008 with 36 percent to John McCain's 23 percent.
2008 results: Romney (36 percent), McCain (23 percent), Paul (21 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
-25 unbound delegates selected later by convention.
-Three automatic unbound RNC delegates.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 17
Delegates: 27
Advantage: Romney?
Alaska is notoriously difficult to predict, given the scarcity of reliable polling. Ron Paul is the only major 2012 candidate to campaign there leading up to Super Tuesday, but Romney won the state handily in 2008.
2008 results: Romney (44 percent), Huckabee (22 percent), Paul (17 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
-24 delegates awarded by state legislative district. Districts carry weights according to past GOP vote performance, and the allotment system works similarly to Idaho's.
-Three automatic unbound RNC delegates
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 13
Delegates: 17
Advantage: Romney
Mostly by virtue of its geography and overall liberalism, Vermont Republicans are expected to support the former moderate governor next door.
2008 results: McCain (72 percent), Huckabee (14 percent), Paul (7 percent)
Delegate Minutiae
- All 17 delegates awarded proportionally to candidates who receive over 20% of the statewide vote, or winner-take-all if any candidate surpasses 50%.
Romney Delegate Guesstimate: 12
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